The High Price of Distance: How Borders Become a Tax on Learning

Fragmentation cuts GDP and starves education
Colonial borders fuel conflict, distrust, and lost learning
Keep mobility open and fund cross-border education corridors

We face a hidden cost that seldom appears in budgets: the expense of distance. When countries become inward-looking due to border issues, national pride, or the lingering effects of past wars, they suffer twice. First, they experience a loss in economic output, and second, they suffer from weaker public services like schools and universities. The International Monetary Fund warns that severe economic division could reduce global GDP by as much as 7%. This loss amounts to trillions of dollars, not just a short-term downturn but a lasting decrease in our ability to invest in people's education. At the same time, UNESCO has tracked a global decline in education funding since 2015. Many governments, especially in low-income areas, are overwhelmed by debt and spend less on classrooms than is needed to meet the demands of demographics and skills. The message is clear: when we allow borders to become barriers, we not only lose trade but also lose essential resources like teachers, laboratories, and the learning routines that help bring divided societies together.

The Price of Distance

We can best see the opportunity cost of distance when integration actually occurs. The African Continental Free Trade Area, if fully realized, could lift around 30-50 million Africans out of extreme poverty by 2035. It could raise real incomes by about 7-9% and increase overall exports by approximately 29%, with significant benefits stemming from increased trade within Africa. The specific numbers may vary based on modeling assumptions regarding trade barriers, but the trend is clear: coordinated rules and fewer obstacles create more equitable growth. This is not just theoretical for education systems; larger and more stable tax revenues can fund school meals, teacher training, and expansions in higher education. Countries that protect education during crises tend to recover more quickly.

We can also assess the cost of reversing integration. Post-Brexit Britain serves as a clear example, providing well-documented impacts. The Office for Budget Responsibility anticipates UK trade to remain about 15% lower than projected before Brexit, leading to a long-term GDP decline of 4-5%. Independent evaluations estimate the GDP loss experienced so far to be around 2-3%, with larger losses expected by the mid-2030s as investment patterns shift. This is not a cultural opinion; it's an economic reality. New customs hurdles, regulatory differences, and reduced cross-border supply chains slow economic growth and, consequently, limit the funds available for public services such as education and job retraining.

Closer to home, Greece and Türkiye have cautiously moved away from a prolonged freeze in relations. The two governments aim to increase bilateral trade to $10 billion. In 2023, trade volume reached about $5.8 billion; by 2024, Türkiye's exports to Greece approached $4.8 billion. While these figures are relatively small compared to each country's GDP, they represent confidence-building exchanges—such as those in energy, transport, and university partnerships—that help prevent public discourse from reverting to unresolved grievances. As trade increases, student exchanges, joint degree programs, and collaborative research projects typically follow, driven by industries' needs that encourage universities to focus on cross-border problem-solving.

It's important to note that the forecasts mentioned are based on models and are not absolute certainties. They depend on various factors, including tariff agreements, trade barriers, logistics costs, and the speed at which companies adjust their supply chains. However, the trends remain consistent: coordination leads to increased real incomes, while fragmentation imposes costs. The educational effects take time to manifest—affecting revenue, wages, migration patterns, and the political importance of skills—but they inevitably arrive. For those interested in a broader economic context, refer to the IMF's 2025 World Economic Outlook and the WTO's reports on trade and inclusiveness for 2023 and 2024.

Borders That Bleed

Why do neighboring countries often avoid cooperation even when it makes sense? History plays a significant role. In Africa, where many conflicts are more recent than ancient, research shows that the damage from colonial-era borders did not end with independence. When the Scramble for Africa created straight lines across ethnic groups, it fragmented communities between newly formed states. Studies reveal that ethnic groups divided by borders face higher instances of discrimination and increased risk of conflict, either through cross-border ties or lingering grievances. These conflicts, in turn, hinder local growth and the development of human capital. The issue is straightforward: when borders divide communities, trust diminishes, and the motivation to work together declines.

This trend is not purely historical. Data on conflicts show that 2023 recorded the highest number of wars since 2017, with many occurring in Africa, including the devastating civil war in Sudan. PRIO's global summary highlights elevated military casualties since 2021, while Our World in Data indicates that more than half of conflict-related deaths since 1989 have taken place in Africa. There are regional variations, and progress has been made in reducing non-state conflicts. Still, the overall message is clear: violence persists, often near fragile borders and driven by exclusionary politics. Education systems always suffer collateral damage—schools close, teachers leave, and cohorts miss out on years of learning that cannot be compensated for by any budget.

This is precisely why a compassionate, practical version of pan-regionalism is essential. Pan-African leaders have long argued that borders should not breed hatred. This belief is not naïve but rather a blueprint for policy. It advocates for increased mobility for students and staff, joint curricula that focus on shared issues like drought or digital business tools, and standardized qualifications, allowing a teacher trained in Accra to take a temporary position in Abidjan without excessive paperwork. When governments establish systems that promote cooperation, such as reciprocal visas and mutual recognition, tangible benefits emerge. For instance, Erasmus+—though in a different context—facilitated about 1.3 million learning opportunities in 2023, and growing research suggests that mobility enhances employability and accelerates career advancement. In African education finance, with public spending averaging around 3.5% of GDP and debt service limiting budgets, any policy that broadens opportunities and reduces distrust is essential for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4.

The psychology supports the economics. Contact between groups can reduce prejudice when conditions are right. Recent research extends Allport's contact theory to modern environments, indicating that positive, face-to-face interactions correlate strongly with decreased bias. Well-designed educational exchanges operate through this mechanism, promoting empathy and teamwork. This is why creating an Aegean "education corridor" to expand Greek-Turkish student and faculty exchanges—even during politically tense times—would yield benefits that outweigh costs in reduced future conflicts, not just in research metrics. The opposite is also true: negative online interactions can harden sectarian views, highlighting that social media cannot easily replace face-to-face cooperation.

Lessons for Today's Great-Power Friction

When advocates of "strategic decoupling" discuss safety and resilience in US-China relations, they often overlook the impact on human development. The IMF's leadership estimates that deep trade fragmentation could result in GDP losses ranging from 0.2% to 7%, depending on the degree of separation and the ease with which companies adapt. The midpoint of this range could effectively eliminate the equivalent of entire annual education budgets for many countries. Even in less extreme scenarios, restructuring supply chains to prioritize allied nations rather than simply diversifying them incurs learning costs: fewer joint research labs, fewer shared syllabi, and fewer early-career researchers who would build careers across systems. This is not an argument for being unaware of security challenges; it suggests we need safeguards that maintain channels for knowledge and talent, even while some flows are monitored.

What would this look like in practice? First, ensure that mobility channels remain broad and predictable. Europe's experience shows how consistent, rules-based mobility can have compounding benefits. By the end of 2023, Erasmus+ had nearly reached 15 million participants since it began; recent economic studies find that participation boosts employment chances three years post-graduation, particularly in STEM fields. Staff mobility is also essential: a 2024 study reveals benefits in teaching quality, networking between institutions, and innovation in educational methods. These are not just soft benefits; they are essential for regional growth and political stability, as they enhance the perceived advantages of cooperation for everyday citizens, not solely for exporters.

Second, explicitly quantify the costs of hatred and make these figures accessible to the public. For example, when governments demonstrate that nationalist campaigns have real financial impacts on food prices and wages—as shown by post-Brexit consumer research in the UK—the public conversation shifts. Transparency does not eliminate identity politics, but it clarifies trade-offs: fewer partnerships and added bureaucracy today lead to lower real incomes and underfunded schools tomorrow. For systems already struggling to maintain education funding, this clarity serves as a public benefit.

Third, focus on trust-building projects between neighbors that are visible to communities: cross-listed university courses with automatic credit transfers; school exchange programs that endure across electoral changes; joint teacher training initiatives focused on bilingual education and climate resilience; common credentialing in fields experiencing shortages, like nursing and early childhood education. These do not necessitate grand declarations. They require local administrators to have a mandate—and dedicated budgets—to work together. The benefits accumulate as small, repetitive reductions in friction that build resilience over time. Economically, this reduces the urgency for cooperation in the future; socially, it provides young people with reasons to view their neighbors as partners in addressing shared challenges.

Finally, avoid idealizing integration. Those in power can co-opt regional efforts; uneven gains can trigger backlash; and poorly designed agreements can limit policy options. Evidence from Asia and UNCTAD's 2022 synthesis is informative: successful integration that distributes benefits tends to combine reduced trade barriers with investments in connectivity and social safety nets, alongside strong institutions to manage disparities. Safeguards enhance the durability of regional efforts by addressing the political dynamics that fuel divisive rhetoric. This distinguishes between open channels and restrictive exclusivity.

If the world takes the upper estimate of fragmentation seriously, we face a permanent loss comparable to turning off the lights in millions of classrooms. This illustrates the deep connection between borders and education. Conversely, when neighbors establish rules that allow for the more unrestricted movement of goods, students, and ideas across borders, they reduce the risk of conflict and build the trust needed to invest in human potential. Africa's continental market offers one potential path forward. The gradual rapprochement between Greece and Türkiye demonstrates that meaningful steps are achievable, even in the shadow of a challenging history. Europe's mobility programs illustrate that sustained exchange over decades fosters both careers and trust. Our goal should not be to erase borders, but to ensure they don't become reasons for division. This involves planning for cooperation, shielding educational exchanges from political cycles, and making the costs of distance clear to citizens, empowering them to make informed choices. If we succeed, the next generation will inherit borders that facilitate life rather than lines that drain it.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Swiss Institute of Artificial Intelligence (SIAI) or its affiliates.

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