Financial

The UK–India pact swaps targeted tariff cuts for larger services and mobility gains Phased quotas protect adjustment while amplifying each side’s comparative strengths Biggest risk: an EU–India deal; move fast and fund skills to preserve advantage

Bitcoin’s value stems from settlement utility, not cash flows Institutional demand and fees support this role It is better seen as a monetary asset than a Ponzi In its first year on the market, U.S

Same cash backbone, different rules: MMFs pay yield; stablecoins move money fast Receive tuition via regulated stablecoins, then auto-sweep into MMFs/tokenized T-bills This two-rail setup cuts cross-border costs, speeds settlement, and protects budgets

China drives disinflation through trade, while U.S.

Business and financial cycles require different neutral interest rates East Asian data show the gaps are often large Policy must balance growth needs with financial stability The most crucial number in monetary policy

Aid can raise political violence by making public office a richer prize Design fixes—timing, transparency, smaller discretion, cash or in-kind by context—reduce that risk Gaza shows the stakes: build neutral, auditable rails and protect multi-year humanitarian budget

U.S.

Stablecoins are the battleground for China’s reserve-currency bid Without a trusted RMB token, dollar stablecoins entrench dominance and siphon savings Use Hong Kong and mBridge to launch audited RMB rails for trade and tuition

Tariffs in 2025 weakened the dollar instead of strengthening it Markets priced in retaliation, limited U.S.

Tariffs act as hidden taxes, falling mainly on U.S.

Instant payments and digital banking have made deposit runs faster than ever Portfolio diversity cushions shocks, but uninsured deposits remain a fragile tail risk Stronger backstops and real-time liquidity are essential to match ten-second money

Tariffs act as taxes, not growth tools Infant-industry logic applies only narrowly Targeted subsidies and workforce policies work better By June 2025, the United States had already collected about $93.9 billion

The dollar jumped post-election on expectations of institutional discipline April 2025 tariffs flipped that belief, boosting uncertainty and softening the dollar Education systems should hedge and budget for event-driven FX swings

Incentives, not ideology, will decide the dollar–RMB digital race Regulated dollar stablecoins scale; e-CNY stays domestic as China tests HK yuan stablecoins Regulate tightly and pilot cross-border payments in education and trade—measure, don’t mandate

Misapplied memories of past crises distort investor behavior and delay recovery Overshooting stems less from ignorance than from faulty analogies that amplify panic or euphoria Policy should focus on structural safeguards and qualified capital, not generic history lessons

Dollar stablecoins hold near-total global dominance Only HKD and JPY can credibly counter in Asia Success depends on fast, disciplined execution

Tariffs nudge prices up but can shrink Treasury coupon supply Channel tariff revenue to bills to compress term premia and enable Fed cuts Extending tax cuts swells deficits, hardens long yields, and squeezes education budgets

Europe must consolidate while rearming Compliance still lags; credible plans are urgent Reprioritise spending and taxes; leverage EU-level financing By July

This article is based on ideas originally published by VoxEU – Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and has been independently rewritten and extended by The Economy editorial team. While inspired by the original analysis, the content presented here reflects a broader interpretation and additional commentary. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of VoxEU or CEPR.

This article was independently developed by The Economy editorial team and draws on original analysis published by East Asia Forum. The content has been substantially rewritten, expanded, and reframed for broader context and relevance. All views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of East Asia Forum or its contributors.